"When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be."
Lord Kelvin

Analysing Corruption as Black Holes – A Study on Hungarian Public Procurement

 

June 22, 2017

 

Presentation for a meeting in the building of the EU Commission, Brussels. The presentation deals with three issues. (1) It presents the analytical framework of corruption risks and competititon intensity of public tenders used by CRCB;  (2) it deals with the results of report “Intensity of Competition, Corruption Risks and Price Distortion in the Hungarian Public Procurement – 2009-2016″ made by CRCB for the European Commission; (3) and it demonstrates some preliminary results on relationships between EU funding and cronyism in Hungary.

The report examines data on Hungarian public procurement from 2009 to 2016. The data of 151,457 contracts were used for the analysis. The analysis focuses on the intensity of competition, price distortions, and corruption risks. The paper also analyses the performance of EU-funded projects from these viewpoints. The results show that 2016 was a very special year in Hungarian public procurement, as the number of contracts decreased significantly, and the ratio of public procurements with EU funds was extremely low. The results also reveal some evidence of price distortion across different approaches during the examined time period. Finally, using several methods, we estimate the volume of direct social loss due to corruption. According to the results, the aggregated amount of estimated direct social loss due to overpricing exceeded 1,800-2,300 billion HUF (5.8-7.5 billion Euros) and accounted for 10-17% of total public procurement spending from 2009 to 2016.

The presentation (PDF)

 

Suggested citation:

Tóth, I. J. (2017, June 22). Analysing Corruption as Black Holes: A Study on Hungarian Public Procurement [Presentation]. ECFIN, EU Commission, Brussels, Belgium. https://www.crcb.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/toth_eu_ecfin_2017_presentation_170622_.pdf