"When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be."
Lord Kelvin

Publications

Corruption risks, intensity of competition and estimated direct social loss in public procurement of Zagreb – 2011-2016

October 11th 2017

The research carried out by CRCB for the CMS is based on the analysis of 5,922 contracts of 4,483 public procurement issued by Grad Zagreb and Zagreb Holding between 2011 and 2016. During the data extraction, we could identify 1,197 winner companies on these tenders which are also the subject of the investigation.

The paper deals with the following questions: (i) What are the tendencies regarding the strength of competition and the corruption risks during the analysed time read more

CMS & CRCB joint Press Conference in Zagreb

October 10th 2017, Zagreb

The team of CRCB presented on October 10th 2017 the results of study “Intensity of Competition, Corruption Risk and Estimation of Direct Social Loss in Public Procurement of Zagreb” financed by the Centre for Peace Studies (Centar za Mirovne Studije).

The press release in Croatian

Presentation of the press conference (pdf)

Detailed presentation of the results & methods (pdf)

The paper in English (pdf)

Presentation on the DCPP software (pdf) and on the spss syntax file which allows the read more

CRCB-WP/2017:1

September  27st  2017

Tóth, István János – Hajdu, Miklós: Versenyerősség, társadalmi veszteségek és a 25 millió forintos értékhatár rejtélye. 2009-2016 közötti magyar közbeszerzések statisztikai vizsgálata / Intensity of competition, social loss and the enigma of 25 million HUF threshold. Statistical analysis of Hungarian public procurement in the period of 2009-2016. Working Paper Series: CRCB-WP/2017:12.

In this paper, we present evidence on some unwanted and unexpected effects of the regulation of thresholds in Hungarian public procurement. The change of Hungarian Public read more

Consultacy with the Commission of Budgetary Control of European Parliament

September 18th 2017

 

The head of CRCB participated as an expert in the consultation with the Commission of Budgetary Control of Eurpean Parliament on Monday September 18th in Budapest and presented the CRCB’s research results on corruption risks, intensity of competition and the phenomenon of political favouritism in Hungarian public procurement.

The presentation ( pdf )

The handout ( pdf )

Data publication. The list of public tenders won by Orban’s close friends and family members read more

Analysing Corruptionas Black Holes – Intensity of Competiton, CorruptionRisks & Price Distortion

July 3rd 2017

The head of CRCB attended the LEAR Public Procurement Conference – 2017 as guest speaker. The presentation dealt with the analytical framework used by CRCB to analyse corruption risks, intensity of competition and price distortion and demonstrated some results on these topics concerning the Italian public procurement.

The presentation ( pdf read more

Analysing corruption as black holes – a study on Hungarian public procurement

June 22nd 2017

The presentation deals with three issues. (1) It presents the analytical framework of corruption risks and competititon intensity of public tenders used by CRCB;  (2) it deals with the results of report “Intensity of Competition, Corruption Risks and Price Distortion in the Hungarian Public Procurement – 2009-2016″ made by CRCB for the European Commission; (3) and it demonstrates some preliminary results on relationships between EU funding and cronyism in Hungary.

The report read more

Competitive intensity and family business

May 30th 2017

In these short papers we analyse the effect of friendship and family ties with the Hungarian Prime Minister (Viktor Orban) on the competitive intensity of public tenders won by companies owned by his close friends and family members. The analysis is based on more than 151,000 Hungarian public procurement tenders in the period of 2009-2016. Using OLS and ordered logit estimations, we estimate the effect of the friendship and family ties on the competitive intensity of tenders. The results point read more

Refugee Crisis in Hungary – 2015. A Content Analysis of Articles from on-line Version of Eight News Outlets

October 1st 2016

The paper explores how the international media dealt with refugee crisis in Hungary between March and September 2015. We selected all articles from The New York Times, The Washington Post, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Mirror, The Telegraph, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and Süddeutsche Zeitung  which contained the words “Hungary” or “Hungarian” or “migrant” or “migration”. Our sample contains 1,518 news articles. During the analysis we used the technics of quantitative and qualitative read more

Competitive Intensity, Overpricing, Corruption Risks and Crony Capitalism in Hungary 2009-2015

 

September 16th 2016

Istvan Janos Toth presented the CRCB’s new research results in William Gates Building of Computer Laboratory at the conference  ”Frontiers of Data Science for Government: Ideas, Practices, and Projections. Data for Policy -2016” organised by University of Cambridge.

The presentation dealt with corruption risk detection, measuring of competitive intensity and the new way to analyse overpricing suggested by the CRCB’s researchers. Based on statistical analysis of 127,000 read more

The detection of overpricing at EU funded public procurement in Hungary

 

September 7 2016

The analysis of first digits of contract prices indicates that the contract prices of all Hungarian public procurement fits into the theoretical distribution for the whole period. But there are crucial differences in price distortion among the contract prices in each year. Price distortion was increasing throughout the whole period; while in 2009 and 2010 contract prices fitted well into the theoretical distribution, after those years the ratio of price distortion got read more