"When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be."
Lord Kelvin

Publications

Brief analysis on the cronyism in Hungary

24 December 2017

Before the issuers publish their calls for tenders, they have to calculate the estimated price of the procurement. This calculation can be based on their experience from previous tenders and on the results of market research.  The price drop between the estimated value and the actual contract price can be regarded as a proxy for measure the intensity of competition. The higher competition between the bidders will result in more intense price competition what should lead to lower read more

CRCB-WP/2017:2

29 December 2017

Tóth, István János – Hajdu, Miklós: Intensity of Competition, Corruption Risks, and Price Distortion in the Hungarian Public Procurement – 2009-2016. Working Paper Series: CRCB-WP/2017:2, CRCB, Budapest.

The report was carried out by CRCB for the European Commission and examines data from Hungarian public procurement in the period between 2009 and 2016. The data of 151,457 contracts were used for the analysis. The analysis focuses on information regarding the intensity of read more

In the footsteps of a kleptocratic state. A presentation at the Budapest Science Meetup

9 November 2017

Budapest Science Meetup, Library of the Hungarian Academy of Science, 7pm

In the presentation we dealt with the effect of friendship and family ties with the Hungarian Prime Minister (Viktor Orban) on the intensity of competition of public tenders won by companies owned by his close friends and family members. The analysis is based on more than 151,000 Hungarian public procurement tenders in the period of 2009-2016. Using OLS and ordered logit estimation and propensity score read more

Corruption risks, intensity of competition and estimated direct social loss in public procurement of Zagreb – 2011-2016

11 October 2017

The research carried out by CRCB for the CMS is based on the analysis of 5,922 contracts of 4,483 public procurement issued by Grad Zagreb and Zagreb Holding between 2011 and 2016. During the data extraction, we could identify 1,197 winner companies on these tenders which are also the subject of the investigation.

The paper deals with the following questions: (i) What are the tendencies regarding the strength of competition and the corruption risks during the analysed time read more

CMS & CRCB joint Press Conference in Zagreb

10 October 2017

The team of CRCB presented on October 10th 2017 in Zagreb the results of study “Intensity of Competition, Corruption Risk and Estimation of Direct Social Loss in Public Procurement of Zagreb” financed by the Centre for Peace Studies (Centar za Mirovne Studije).

The press release in Croatian

Presentation of the press conference (pdf)

Detailed presentation of the results & methods (pdf)

The paper in English (pdf)

Presentation on the DCPP software (pdf) and on the spss syntax file which allows the read more

CRCB-WP/2017:1

September 27, 2017

Tóth, István János – Hajdu, Miklós: Versenyerősség, társadalmi veszteségek és a 25 millió forintos értékhatár rejtélye. 2009-2016 közötti magyar közbeszerzések statisztikai vizsgálata / Intensity of competition, social loss and the enigma of 25 million HUF threshold. Statistical analysis of Hungarian public procurement in the period of 2009-2016. Working Paper Series: CRCB-WP/2017:1, CRCB, Budapest.

Abstract

In this paper, we present evidence on some unwanted and unexpected effects of the regulation of thresholds in Hungarian public procurement. The change of Hungarian read more

Consultacy with the Commission of Budgetary Control of European Parliament

18 September  2017

The head of CRCB participated as an expert in the consultation with the Commission of Budgetary Control of European Parliament on Monday September 18th in Budapest and presented the CRCB’s research results on corruption risks, intensity of competition and the phenomenon of political favouritism in Hungarian public procurement.

The presentation (pdf)

The handout (pdf)

Data publication. The list of public tenders won by Orban’s close friends and family members with indicators read more

Analysing Corruptionas Black Holes – Intensity of Competiton, CorruptionRisks & Price Distortion

3 July 2017

The head of CRCB attended the LEAR Public Procurement Conference – 2017 as guest speaker. The presentation dealt with the analytical framework used by CRCB to analyse corruption risks, intensity of competition and price distortion and demonstrated some results on these topics concerning the Italian public procurement.

The presentation ( pdf read more

Analysing corruption as black holes – a study on Hungarian public procurement

22 June 2017

Presentation for a meeting in the building of EU Commission, Brussels. The presentation deals with three issues. (1) It presents the analytical framework of corruption risks and competititon intensity of public tenders used by CRCB;  (2) it deals with the results of report “Intensity of Competition, Corruption Risks and Price Distortion in the Hungarian Public Procurement – 2009-2016″ made by CRCB for the European Commission; (3) and it demonstrates some preliminary results on read more

Competitive intensity and family business

30 May 2017

In these short papers we analyse the effect of friendship and family ties with the Hungarian Prime Minister (Viktor Orban) on the competitive intensity of public tenders won by companies owned by his close friends and family members. The analysis is based on more than 151,000 Hungarian public procurement tenders in the period of 2009-2016. Using OLS and ordered logit estimations, we estimate the effect of the friendship and family ties on the competitive intensity of tenders. The results point out read more