"When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be."
Lord Kelvin

Publications

Tesztelés, politikai korrupció és Covid-19 halálozás

2021. június 8.

Tóth I. J. 2021. Tesztelés, politikai korrupció és Covid-19 halálozás. [Testing, political corruption and Covid-19 mortality. ] CRCB Research Notes: 2021:2, Budapest: CRCB. https://bit.ly/3cqeHsn

Abstract

The paper deals with the impact of political (grand) corruption and government measures against the pandemic on the Covid-19 mortality rate using data of EU27 and OECD countries. The share of the positive tests within all tests is considered an indicator of government measures’ impact. We use the data of the World Bank and Our World in Data. The political corruption is measured by the 2019 data of the WEF read more

Data Concealment and Mortality in Covid-19 Pandemic. An Illustrative Figure and a Hypothesis

April 29, 2021

Public information provision by the government is essential to create trust in the government and government decisions, especially in the Covid-19 pandemic, when citizens’ compliance to the government measures is essential to curb the epidemy. On the other hand, the public information provided by the government supports that the government decisions on pandemic based on experts’ opinion, well-founded evidence, and analysis.

Therefore, it is worth analyzing how governments’ read more

Factors Affecting the Corruption Risk and Intensity of Competition in Public Procurement at the Level of Local Government

December 21, 2020
Tóth, I. J. and Hajdu, M. 2020. Factors Affecting the Corruption Risk and Intensity of Competition in Public Procurement at the Level of Local Government. Working Paper Series: CRCB-WP/2020:1. Budapest: CRCB.
 

This paper investigates the level of corruption risk and intensity of competition of public tenders at the municipal level in Hungary. It analyses the relationship of these factors with the level of human capital, economic development, and settlement size. The paper’s novelty is the sub-national level, and that the research is based on microdata (contract level data), whereas the read more

Útépítés Magyarországon – 2020

2020. december 15.

A Strabag építette 2020-ban az M76-os út Balatonszentgyörgy – Sármellék közötti szakaszát, belerétve az M76 és 71-es út kereszteződését.

Térképen itt látható a helyszín: https://www.google.com/maps/@46.6774003,17.2166509,12z

Az M76 építése során Balatonszentgyörgynél felépített felüljáró és az M76-71-es csomópont között mintegy 4-5 méterre emelték meg az út szintjét a korábbi 76-os út szintjéhez képest kb. 2-2,5 kilométeren keresztül. A töltést teljes egészében kőzuzalékból emelték a read more

New Trends in Corruption Risks and Intensity of Competition in the Hungarian Public Procurement

 

May 26, 2020
New Trends in Corruption Risk and Intensity of Competition in the Hungarian Public Procurement from January 2005 to April 2020. Flash Report 2020:1. Budapest: CRCB 
This report examines Hungarian public procurement data in the period between 2005 and 2020. Data from 248,404 contracts were used for the analysis, which focuses on information about corruption risk, the intensity of competition and political favouritism.

The results show that in the first four months of 2020, corruption risk in Hungarian read more

COVID-19

2021. június 8.

Emelkedett a J mutató értéke

A koronavírus járvány lefutásának előrejelzése a szennyvízadatok elemzése alapján

A CRCB elemzése (pdf)

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2021. június 1.

Vége a járvány harmadik hullámának: a J mutató jóval a tavaly június végi szint alá csökkent

A koronavírus járvány lefutásának előrejelzése a szennyvízadatok elemzése alapján

A CRCB elemzése (pdf)

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2021. május 25.

Stagnál a J mutató értéke

A koronavírus járvány lefutásának előrejelzése a szennyvízadatok elemzése alapján

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2021. május 20.

Tovább csökkent a J mutató értéke

A koronavírus járvány lefutásának előrejelzése a szennyvízadatok elemzése alapján

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2021. május 12.

Az utóbbi két hétben jelentős mértékben ingadozott a

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értéke

A koronavírus járvány lefutásának előrejelzése a szennyvízadatok elemzése alapján

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A kiszámíthatatlan és korrupt állam a sikeres read more

Corruption, Institutions and Convergence. Empirical Analysis of Public Tenders of the Old and New EU Member States and Three Developing Countries

 
December 13, 2019
 
Tóth, István János – Hajdu, Miklós. 2019. Corruption, Institutions and Convergence. Empirical Analysis of Public Tenders of the Old and New EU Member States and Three Developing Countries. Budapest: CRCB.

Abstract

This paper focuses on the measurement of institutional convergence in the new EU member states and four Southern European EU member countries. Previous studies have used perception data or expert surveys at the country level to quantify institutional convergence. We present a new method that is based on hard micro-level data. Our approach focuses on read more